Weekly dynamics of suspected acute meningoencephalitis cases in Paraguay, 2025–2026
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.66476/mf.v3n2.7414Keywords:
meningoencephalitis, epidemiological surveillance, central nervous system infections, time series, primary health care, ParaguayAbstract
Introduction: Acute meningoencephalitis (AME) is a rapidly progressing neuroinfectious emergency with high case fatality and a risk of neurological sequelae. Continuous surveillance guides early clinical suspicion and resource allocation in primary care and emergency services. The objective was to describe the weekly dynamics of suspected AME notifications in the Paraguayan surveillance system in 2025 and 2026.
Materials and methods: Observational, descriptive, retrospective time-series study based on aggregated weekly notifications from the AME Dashboard of the Directorate General of Health Surveillance (DGVS), Ministry of Public Health and Social Welfare, extracted on 22 September 2026 by epidemiological week (EW) of symptom onset. All 53 EW of 2025 (n = 581) and EW 1 to 38 of 2026 (n = 335) were analyzed. The main interannual comparison was restricted to EW 1 to 36, because EW 37 and 38 of 2026 were the most recent and incomplete; EW 1 to 30 and 1 to 38 were analyzed as sensitivity analyses.
Results: In 2025, 581 suspected cases were notified (9.1 per 100 000 inhabitants). In EW 1 to 36, 397 cases were notified in 2025 and 328 in 2026 (change of −17.4 %; weekly mean 11.03 ± 3.20 versus 9.11 ± 3.04). The change was −20.5 % in EW 1 to 30 and −20.8 % in EW 1 to 38. Weekly variability was close to that expected by chance (variance-to-mean ratio 0.93 in 2025 and 1.01 in 2026) and the two years were not concordant (r = −0.16).
Conclusions: Notifications of suspected AME were lower in 2026 than in 2025, by 17 % to 21 % depending on the period compared. The analysis does not allow claims of seasonality or attribution of the difference to a change in incidence, and the data do not distinguish etiology. Clinical suspicion and immediate referral should be maintained throughout the year, and notification and update dates should be recorded to measure reporting delay.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Noelia Teresa Pérez Sosa, Alma Graciela González de Lamas, Freddy Arturo Benítez Villalba, Oscar Darío Aquino Martínez, Rubén Darío Ibarrola Valenzuela, Mirna Duarte, Héctor Adrián Franco, Antonella Eunice Antico, Miguel Almeida Viana Neto, Marcos Felipe, Cristian Armando Gauto Martínez
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